Will the China-US Tariff Trade War End in 2026?
熊神進・2025-11-15Trump announced that a 100% tariff will be imposed on Chinese goods exported to the United States starting from November 1st, and export controls will be implemented on "all critical software". Trump's new trade action is a response to China's significant expansion of export controls on rare earth elements.According to a Reuters report on October 17th, when US President Donald Trump was interviewed by FBN and asked whether such high tariffs are sustainable and what impact they might have on the economy, he responded, "This is unsustainable."The United States will impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese products. Spokespersons of the chambers of commerce in Hong Kong and Macau believe that the goods for the US Thanksgiving have already been delivered. Moreover, most mainland Chinese, Hong Kong, and Macau merchants have relocated their factories in the United States to Southeast Asia, India, and other regions. Therefore, it is believed that the impact of this measure will not be significant. We attempt to use China's traditional "Bazi (Eight Characters) Theory" (八字理論)to predict whether the China-US tariff trade war will end in 2026.The United States was founded on July 4th, 1776, and the People's Republic of China was founded at 15:00 on October 1st, 1949.From the perspective of Bazi numerology, analyzing whether the China-US tariff trade war will end or ease in 2026 requires combining the five-element characteristics (五行特徵)of the Bazi of the two countries and the interaction of their annual fortunes.The Bazi of the United States is: Bing Shen(丙申), Jia Wu(甲午), Geng Yin(庚寅), Xin Si(辛巳). Geng Jin(庚金) is born in the Wu month(五月) (the fifth lunar month), where the fire element is strong, so Geng Jin (庚金)is restrained. However, the Shen Jin(申金) in the Year Pillar(年柱) and the Si Huo(巳火) in the Hour Pillar(時柱) contain the root of Geng Jin(庚金), and with the support of Xin Jin辛金, its own strength should not be underestimated. In its Bazi, the fire and wood elements are relatively strong, and the metal element also has a certain degree of strength, resulting in a slight imbalance of the five elements.The Bazi of China is: Ji Chou(己丑), Gui You(癸酉), Jia Zi(甲子), Xin Wei(辛未). Jia Mu (甲木)is born in the You month(酉月) (the eighth lunar month), where the metal element is strong and the wood element is weak. However, the Ji Chou(己丑) in the e Year Pillar(年柱) and the Xin Wei (辛未) in the Hour Pillar(時柱) contain earth, which generates metal. Additionally, the Gui You (癸酉) in the Month Pillar(月柱) forms a cycle where metal generates water and water generates wood, creating a certain circulation of the five elements. Although Jia Mu(甲木) is in a weak position, it has the support of Yin Xing (印星) and Bi Jie (比肩星), so its foundation is relatively stable.The year 2026 is the Bing Wu year(丙午年), which belongs to the fire element in the five elements. From the perspective of the US Bazi, Bing Huo (丙火)represents Qi Sha (七殺), and Wu (戊)represents Zheng Guan (正官). The simultaneous appearance of Qi Sha(七殺) and Zheng Guan(正官) symbolizes pressure, conflict, and change. In this year, the United States may face greater pressure and challenges in its foreign policies, and there may be volatility and adjustments in its trade policies. For China's Bazi, Bing Huo(丙火) represents Zheng Guan(正官) , and Wu Huo(午火) represents Shi Shen (食神). Shang Guan (正官)and Shi Shen (食神) symbolize innovation, change, and external communication. In this year, China may introduce new measures and ideas in its trade policies to respond to external pressure. From the perspective of the mutual generation and restriction of the five elements, the fire element of the Bing Wu year 2026 forms a stronger mutual generation relationship with the fire and wood elements in the US Bazi. The excessive fire energy may make the United States more aggressive in its trade policies, but at the same time, it may also trigger a series of problems due to excessive impulsiveness, forcing it to make adjustments. For China's Bazi, although fire represents Shang Guan and Shi Shen, it also has a certain mutual generation relationship with its own five elements. In this year, China may take more proactive measures to respond to the trade war and ease pressure through its own wisdom and strategies. Overall, the China-US tariff trade war may experience a relatively intense phase in 2026. However, precisely because both sides are facing different pressures and challenges, it may prompt them to re-examine their trade policies, thereby creating opportunities for a certain degree of easing. Nevertheless, Bazi numerology analysis is only a traditional cultural perspective and is for reference only. The actual trend of the trade war still needs to be comprehensively judged by combining more realistic factors such as politics and economy.